Analisis Dilema Kebijakan Fiskal Indonesia dalam Kerangka Teori Keynesian

Abstract

This study discusses the dilemma of Indonesia’s fiscal policy in 2025 in the context of budget efficiency and its impact on economic growth, using the Keynesian theory perspective. The main focus of this study is to analyze the shift in budget allocation from productive spending, such as infrastructure, education, and employment programs, to consumptive spending, including official travel, meetings, and other administrative needs. The data analyzed comes from official 2025 state budget documents, government policy statements, and national economic news sources. This research uses a descriptive qualitative approach with a literature review method, along with thematic data analysis and visuals presented in the form of graphs. The findings reveal that the government’s efficiency policy does not fully support economic growth, as it involves cutting strategic expenditures that are crucial to stimulating aggregate demand, as emphasized in Keynesian theory. Budget efficiency in the form of reduced capital spending and cuts in regional transfers risks limiting fiscal space for long-term investments that have a multiplier effect on the national economy. Conversely, the continued allocation of funds to consumptive sectors indicates inefficiency in the orientation of government spending. Therefore, this study concludes that the 2025 budget efficiency policy tends to restrict national economic growth by reducing the government’s role in driving real economic activity. The study recommends that the government balance efficiency measures with strategic investments to ensure sustainable long-term economic growth.