Analisis Produksi Lada di Indonesia (1970-2023)

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the development of pepper production in Indonesia during the period 1970–2023 and assess the direction, trends, and prospects of its future production. The method used is quantitative descriptive analysis with a simple linear regression model approach to see the relationship between time and production. Data were processed using Microsoft Excel facilities, and the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) calculation was used to determine the average annual growth rate. The research data were sourced from FAOSTAT and the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The results show that Indonesian pepper production fluctuated throughout the observation period; starting with a production volume of 17,219 tons in 1970, reaching a high point of approximately 80,000 tons in the early 1990s, and recording a peak of 88.23 thousand tons in 2018. However, production experienced a drastic contraction, dropping to approximately 30,000 tons in 2023. This decline was caused by Phytophthora capsici disease attacks, decreased soil fertility, and limited application of modern cultivation technology. Nevertheless, since 2010, there has been a recovery through plantation revitalization programs, the development of superior varieties such as Muntok White Pepper and Lampung Black Pepper, and increased farmer capacity. When compared with Brazil, that country shows a more stable pattern of production growth thanks to the support of technology and integrated agricultural policies.